This La Nia footprint is pretty intuitive. Angela King is the local host of Morning Edition. NWS And like for seasonal temperature and precipitation, knowing the state of ENSO is a pretty reasonable place to start. On twooccasions, there have been threeconsecutive LaNia winters (1973-76 & 1998-2001). This is usually because of two primary factors: 1. WRN Ambassadors, Additional Information See Tippett et al. And that tends to stack the deck for us to have actually a cooler than normal winter, especially after the first of the calendar year. 2022 Columbia River spring-summer-fall forecasts; 2022 Chinook (statewide) 2022 Coho . Our independent, nonprofit newsroom produces award-winning stories, podcasts and events. Join our Farmhouse Today. Time/General. I actually looked at their forecasts from some years ago -- 13 winters, their monthly precipitation totals, and average temperatures relative to normal for Western Washington and Western Oregon. Lets dig a little deeper and look at some of the characteristics within these two convective phases (Figure 3). Weather Phenomenon Boaters J. A cold or warm pattern lingering a week too long or ending a week early can greatly alter a monthly average. High pressure over Greenland or high-latitude blocking helps push the storm track farther south and east, often creating storm tracks that are cold and snowy for our region. Climate Outlook | Office of the Washington State Climatologist The changes in spring (March May) are similar to those during winter, but somewhat weaker. However, as is evident in these maps, there is a great deal of variability even among strong La Nia events. Community Involvement The early arrival of the winter storms will also spell an end to the active wildfire season for the region as rain and snow help to douse any flames. This was the major factor in our historically snowy winter of 2009-10. Higgins, W., J. Schemm, W. Shi, and A. Leetmaa, 2000: Extreme precipitation events in the western United States related to tropical forcing. 2021 SEATTLE Skiers and snowboarders, rejoice! Time Zone. There is more sinking air motion over the cooler waters of the central and eastern Pacific. We expect that this winter the PDO will average negative, perhaps strongly so. In 2011-2012, we called for near-normal temperatures, and it was 5 degrees warmer than average. Storm Summaries Across America, the Farmers Almanac is calling for near-normal amounts of snow, though perhaps not as much as people who spend the winter playing in the snow might prefer. They both tend to develop during the spring (March-June), reach peak intensity during the late autumn or winter (November-February), and then weaken during the spring or early summer (March-June). Thus, the AO can have a strong influence on weather and climate in major population centers in North America, Europe, and Asia, especially during winter. Although advances have been made in seasonal forecasting, there is still a great deal of uncertainty and limited skill in developing these outlooks. Looking for a speaker? La Nia literally means "the little girl." When it is sharply negative, conditions often, but not always, trend warm and dry. Postal Service said on Thursday it has cut projected losses through 2031 by more than half after winning financial relief from Congress . These two phases produce opposite changes in clouds and rainfall and this entiredipole(i.e., having two main opposing centers of action) propagates eastward. The Nio-3.4 index has a 66% chance of reaching a value less than -1.0C duringNovember 2021 - January 2022, but only a 14% chance of being below -1.5C. With this much debt, and with a trend of unending . 2021-2022 Winter Fuels Outlook: October 2021: PDF: Forecast Sensitivity of Carbon Dioxide Emissions to Temperatures: . This study evaluates the simulation of wintertime (15 October, 2019, to 15 March, 2020) statistics of the central Arctic near-surface atmosphere and surface energy budget observed during the MOSAiC campaign with short-term forecasts from 7 state-of-the-art operational and experimental forecast systems. La Nias typically occur every 3 to 7 years. Close. Viewed from above either pole, these patterns show a characteristic ring-shape or "annular" pattern; thus, AO and AAO are also referred to as the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM), respectively. But just because Spokane's La Nia forecast wasn't perfectly on par with the textbooks, it doesn't mean the rest of the country's was off. From the AGU monograph on the North Atlantic Oscillation, 293, 85-89. Winter temperature differences from average (degrees F) during La Nia winters dating back to 1950. References It could go that way. The highest shift in the probabilities is in New England andfrom the coastal areas of southeast Texas northeast into the Carolinas and east into Florida. 2009, Zhou et al., 2012, Riddle et al., 2013, Johnson et al., 2014). The typical U.S. impacts are warmer- and drier-than-average conditions across the southern tier of the United States, colder-than-average conditions across the north-central Plains, and wetter-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest stretching into northern California. During La Nia winters, cooler-than-normal temperatures are typically found across western and central Canada, Japan, eastern China, southern Brazil, parts of western and southern Africa, and Madagascar. The MJO was first discovered in the early 1970s by Dr. Roland Madden and Dr. Paul Julian when they were studying tropical wind and pressure patterns. 2022-2023 Extended Winter Forecast; 2022-2023 Canadian Extended Winter Forecast; 2023 Spring Extended Weather Forecast; 2023 Summer Extended Weather Forecast; . This was based upon recent trends over the past decade. 2023 Realtor.com Forecast: 2022 Realtor.com Housing Data Expectations . Here is a brief summary of their outlooks: Several of these forecasters agree that winter will start fast with cold, snowy conditions before trending milder. That provides a significantly different picture, with the average of the latest events much warmer than the earlier ones. The MJO can modulate the timing and strength of monsoons (e.g., Jones and Carvalho, 2002; Lavender and Matthews, 2009), influence tropical cyclone numbers and strength in nearly all ocean basins (e.g., Maloney and Hartmann, 2000), and result in jet stream changes that can lead to cold air outbreaks, extreme heat events, and flooding rains over the United States and North America (Higgins et al. This bike rider we will call the MJO and he/she may cross the stage from left to right several times during the show. How Much Snow to Expect: Doug's 2021-22 Winter Forecast Temperatures tend to be warmer across much of the country during the most recent ten La Niaevents as compared to the earliest ten La Niaevents. This U.S. Winter Outlook 2021-2022 map for temperature shows warmer-than-average conditions across the South and most of the eastern U.S., while below average temperatures are favored for southeast Alaska and the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Northern Plains. where snowfall is greater than average and brown shows where snowfall is less than average. The MJO consists of two parts, orphases: one is the enhanced rainfall (orconvective) phase and the other is the suppressed rainfall phase. Riddle,E. E.,M. B.Stoner,N. C.Johnson,M. L.LHeureux,D. C.Collins, andS. B.Feldstein,2013:The impact of the MJO on clusters of wintertime circulation anomalies over the North American region. Washington Department of Fish & Wildlife. March is looking to be above average as well, which means less snowfall. The official Climate Prediction Center outlook is similar to these model forecasts, calling for a 70% chance for La Nia to continue through the 2021-2022 winter season. Future posts will focus on the details of how we monitor and assess the strength of the MJO, provide details on impacts and the reasons for those impacts, and describe the current state of MJO predictability. ENSOshifts the atmospheric circulation(notably, thejet stream) in ways that affect wintertemperature and precipitation over the U.S. Site search . The most obvious reflection of the phase of this oscillation is the north-to-south location of the storm-steering, mid-latitude jet stream. Climate Variability: North AtlanticOscillation (NAO). But overall, temperatures should work out close to average. For example, 8 of the 11 strong and moderate events show the cool conditions in the Northern Great Plains, which is most winters, but not all. However, AccuWeather meteorologists forecast an excellent ski season ahead with a healthy snowpack and above-average snowfall in the mountains. Last winter we called for slightly below-average snowfall (10 to 14 inches) and somewhat above-average temperatures (2 degrees above average), whereas snowfall was solidly below average (6 to 10 inches), and temperatures were slightly above average (1.1 degrees above average). When the probability of the favored category becomes very large, such as 70% (which is very rare), the above rule for assigning the probabilities for the two non-favored categories becomes different. In other words, they are the boundaries between the lower and middle thirds of the distribution, and between the middle and upper thirds. Weather. Meanwhile, the 30-year average snowfall has declined from over 20 inches in the late 1800s to just 13.7 inches today. In addition to being the local presence during national programs, she also voices many of the sponsorships you hear on KUOW and on our podcasts. Like the cold rain and snow? New winter outlook suggests plenty around Averaged statewide, both temperatures and precipitation were near-normal, with temperatures +0.9F above the 1981-2010 normal and precipitation at 102% of normal. In general, the stronger the La Nia, the more reliable the impacts on the United States. While it is still several weeks until the official start of winter on Dec. 21, several organizations are already unveiling their nationwide Winter 2022-2023 forecasts. The precipitation pattern, presented above, shows negative anomalies (indicating below-normal rainfall) across the entire southern part of the country with a weaker signal of above-average precipitation in the Ohio Valley and in the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Forecasts and model runs for the 2023 seasons will be posted here as they become available. it is common for La Nia to last for two years or more. But what's really going on in the climate system is that the tropical Pacific is cooling off and it's likely we'll have weak to moderate La Nina conditions. February should offer some reprieve from storms. The polar jet stream tends to ridge over a semi-permanent High Pressure over the North Pacific and dips towards the Pacific Northwest. Its calling for above average temperatures and below-average snowfall (5 to 13 inches), in line with everyone elses expectations. Prevalent storm tracks along the northern branch of the jet stream typically cut to our west and/or redevelop as coastal storms to our north, and we are left either warm and rainy, or dry. In fact, the temperature forecasts were no better than flipping a coin, and precipitation forecasts were actually a little bit worse. However, when there is enough cold air in place ahead of such storms, the precipitation can start as snow before usually changing over to an icy mix or plain rain. The CPC winter temperature forecasts to the right show the most likely outcome where there is greater confidence, but this is not the only possible outcome. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecastfor the upcoming winter months of December-February: While a moderate La Nia is expected to impact the weather across much of the United States, its impacts in the Upper Mississippi River Valley can be highly variable with both temperatures and precipitation. Thus, in general, the expected prediction skill is likely to be lower than for temperature. Nisqually Boardroom 1D2. Yeah, so the Farmer's Almanac has is wetter than normal and warmer than normal. Blue shading shows temperature and precipitation over the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 25, 1297-1300. Theseries of maps to the right shows temperature patterns across the continental United States compared to the 1981-2010 average for every winter seasonDecember through Februarysince 1950 that coincided with La Nia conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. U.S. Winter Outlook: Drier, warmer South, wetter North with return of Until recently, the only solid evidence showing that more tornadoes occur during La Nia conditions was for winter (January-March), when the ENSO signal is strongest, but average tornado activity is relatively low (Cook & Schaefer, 2008). Due to this, the CPC winter temperature and precipitation outlooks are consistent with typical La Nia impacts across much of the United States. January should provide additional windows of opportunity for snow, while wintry weather may fade in February. Meeting Agenda - May 16-17, 2023 - Washington State Transportation While a negative AO and NAO combination far from guarantees a cold and snowy period, our chances of a meaningful snow event are much greater than without it. Overall, January will be stormy, especially along the Atlantic Seaboard, with bouts of rain, snow, sleet and ice. Winter 2021-22 Outlook - National Weather Service Last year we got just 5.4 inches with the biggest snowfall of 2.3 inches. The status of the PDO between 1950 and this year, shown at bottom, indicates a predominantly positive phase from about 1978 to 1998 and a negative phase since 1999. A clearer picture of the impact of ENSO emerges when we look at the ingredients that are conducive to tornado and thunderstorm occurrence (Allen et al., 2015a). Other climate phenomena, such as the Arctic Oscillation or the Madden Julian Oscillation, as well as the random nature of weather, can also play a large part in how winter turns out. The April precipitation outlook is uncertain: there are equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal precipitation statewide. The mercury will be prone to both springlike spikes and bone-chilling plunges. April 2023 . The price of natural gas sold to Nevada ratepayers saw another unusually high spike in January 2023, hitting $36.81 per thousand cubic feet, up from $3.74 in January of 2021 and $7.45 in January 2022. Comparison of winter temperature differences from average (degrees F) between the earliest and most recent ten La Nia winters dating back to 1950. Study says specific weather forecasts cant be made more than 10 days in advance. And 6 of the 11 events produced wet conditions in the Ohio Valley, which is slightly more than half, but far from a guarantee. 2: animation). Climate Dyn., 38, 1459-1471. Areas south of the storm track (much of the Southeast) will see frequent storms bringing cold rains and a wintry mix . This year looks like a moderate La Nia, which can mean winter storms. For those curiouswhy this occurs, Nat Johnson wrote an article on it for the NOAA Climate Blog on May 27, 2021. So the landscape has dried out. Winter Weather Safety. The AO is a measurement of surface air pressure at the high latitudes over and north of Greenland. Now imagine another bike rider entering the stage on the left and pedaling slowly across the stage, passing the stationary bike (ENSO), and exiting the stage at the right. Review of Winter 2020-21 | Office of the Washington State Climatologist Indeed, historic tornado outbreaks in1974,2008,and2011started during La Nia conditions. Zhou S., M. LHeureux, S. Weaver, and A. Kumar, 2012: A composite study of MJO influence on the surface air temperature and precipitation over the Continental United States. New e-regulations for coastal rivers for 2022-23 season: J. Wetter-than-normal conditions are favored from the Pacific Northwest east into Montana and Wyoming, from northern Arkansas and Tennesee north into the Great Lakes and northeast into New York and Vermont,and in western Alaska. I expect December to be well above average for temperatures with almost no snowfall -- bad news if youre dreaming of a white Christmas. Splitting La Nia events into strength reveals some interesting differences worth investigating further. Release Date: Apr. As we progress toward the fall and winter months (August-September-October, ASO 2023 through January-February-March, JFM 2024), El Nio is expected to become more of a factor and the pattern begins to increasingly reflect El Nio conditions during the cold months. This was based upon recent trends over the past decade. Top menu. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Early February should also start rather cold and stormy, but the month looks to end on the warmer side. They often noticed regular oscillations in winds (as defined from departures from average) between Singapore and Canton Island in the west-central equatorial Pacific (Madden and Julian, 1971; 1972; Zhang, 2005). The first official astronomical day of winter arrives on Tuesday, Dec. 21. This results in more upwelling of cold water off the Peruvian coast which results in even colder waters in the central and eastern equatorial waters. Lett. Hourly Weather These historical relationships along with guidance provided by a suite of computer models play a strong role in the final outlooks. So what are you seeing? For example, 9 of the 11 strong and moderate events show wetter-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwestthough the intensity of the anomaly varieswhich is most winters, but not all. Below are the temperature, precipitation, and snow data for La Crosse, WI, and Rochester, MN. What are the models telling you? In New England, for example, higher frequencies of coastal storms known as "Nor'easters" are linked to AO's negative phase. December: 1 to 2 degrees colder than average, Reagan National Airport (DCA): 8 to 12 inches (compared with a 13.7-inch average), Dulles International Airport (IAD): 12 to 16 inches (compared with a 21-inch average), Baltimore-Washington International Marshall Airport (BWI): 10 to 15 inches (compared with a 19.3-inch average), Fairfax, Loudoun, Montgomery counties: 10 to 18 inches, Alexandria, Arlington and Prince Georges counties and the District: 8 to 14 inches. Washington State Dept. NOAA Winter Outlook for temperature for December 2021- January 2022 (NOAA / FOX 13 Seattle) The coldest season officially begins with the. In the Southwest, meteorologists predict that the lack of early-season precipitation will allow the ongoing wildfire season to extend all the way into December, an unusually late end to the season. The last time that there was a La Nia winter was 2020-21 (also moderate strength). This tends to result in weather systems that push cold and moist airmass into our region. In the enhanced convective phase, winds at the surface converge, and the air is pushed up throughout the atmosphere. To see how the weather is shaping up for the remainder of the country, click here. Preparedness (En Espanol) More is expected to the north and west, with 12-18 inches in areas like Leesburg, Dulles International Airport and Gaithersburg. . Motor Gasoline Outlook and State MTBE Bans: April 2003: PDF: Winter Fuels Outlook: 2002-2003 (Selected graph and table updates) Washington Winter Outlook: NOAA Predicts Wetter, Cooler Season Well, rain this winter is not going to help Eastern Washington right now, which is still dealing with fires. Widespread, ongoing drought is currently in place across the western half of the continental U.S. and in parts of Minnesota, northern Iowa, Wisconsin, and northern Illinois. We do take these long-term trends into account in our winter outlooks. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is based on the surface sea-level pressure difference between the Subtropical (Azores) High and the Subpolar Low. Midwest La Nia Seasonal Snow Departures (23 Winters since 1949-50), Author:Michael K. Tippett and Chiara Lepore In our region, La Nias, particularly moderate to strong events, are often associated with dry, mild winters with modest snowfall. However, not all La Nias are the same, and there are other factors that drive our weather. For more information, please visit the NCEIandClimate Prediction Center NAO pages. (1) The terciles, technically, are the 33.33 and 66.67 percentile positions in the distribution. Please select one of the following: is slightly favoredinsoutheast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, andwestern Wisconsin. Figure by climate.gov; data from the authors. Staff However, tornado and severe weather activity is more variable (noisier and harder to predict) than ordinary weather (think temperature and precipitation), and any ENSO signal is harder to see. And some impacts are more reliable than others. KUOW is the Puget Sound regions #1 radio station for news. Overall, La Nina conditions are associated with enhanced U.S. tornado activity, but more detailed aspects of ENSO may also be relevant (Lee et al., 2012). Wind Chill Climate Often, the near-normal category remains at 33.33%, and the category opposite the favored one is below 33.33% by the same amount that the favored category is above 33.33%. Sven R. Larson. NOAA calls for stormy winter across the northern U.S. but mild, dry weather elsewhere. Horizontal arrows pointing left represent wind departures from average that are easterly, and arrows pointing right represent wind departures from average that are westerly. Toddler Shot, Taken To Tukwila Fire Station: Police, Suspected Arsonist Arrested Following Massive Marina Fire In Seattle, 30 Boats Destroyed In Seattle Fire Near Ship Canal Bridge, Virtual Diversity Career Fair for the Pacific NW: Seattle | Portland | Vancouver, Jewish Day Schools Just Got More Affordable, Seattle Job Listings: See Who's Hiring In The Area, Seattle Area Prospective Homeowners: 3 New Homes On The Market, How Gas Taxes In Washington Compare To Other States, Seattle Area Pets Waiting To Be Adopted: Dobi, Koby, Dutches & More, 8 WA Billionaires Make Forbes 400 List Of Super Rich, When Does The 1st Frost Usually Occur In WA: How To Protect Plants. And that is consistent with forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center of NOAA. This doesnt include dustings or ice events; we are likely to have some of those, too. 2022 Forecasts. The storm track is, in turn, shifted northward across parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes (2). U.S. Postal Service Shrinks Forecast Losses as Hikes Prices Equal chance display areas where confidence is low, so there is an equal chance of it being among the wettest third, near-normal, or among the driest third. Precipitation Reports The fire season though has been less active than some in recent years. A proud University of Washington alumna, with degrees in broadcast journalism and American ethnic studies, she started her career as a news writer in Seattle, before becoming a reporter and anchor in Seattle, Portland and Albuquerque. The AO's positive phase is characterized by lower-than-average air pressure over the Arctic paired with higher-than-average pressure over the northern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. While the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a lesser-known phenomenon, it can have dramatic impacts in the mid-latitudes. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center will release their 2021-22 Winter weather outlook in October while KREM2 Chief Meteorologist Tom Sherry will have the Inland Northwest's long-range winter forecast in November 2021. Conversely, AO's negative phase has higher-than-average air pressure over the Arctic region and lower-than-average pressure over the northern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The entire system shifts eastward over time, eventually circling the globe and returning to its point of origin. Sun & Moon. Reviews of Geophysics,43, 1-36. The winter central Arctic surface energy budget: A model evaluation Sign in. NOAA's CPC Winter 2021-22 Outlook for the Upper Mississippi River Valley Released: November 18, . Here at Patch, some of us were on the hype train by early July. Winter could pound the Northeast with a vengeance starting in mid-December before potentially intensifying in January, which could include a heightened risk for nor'easters and, yes, snowstorms at the tail end of the season. The trend is an important component of seasonal temperature forecasts. Siberian snow cover is also something we look at, and this year it is below average. Figure 2 shows the departure from average temperature and percent of normal precipitation across the state from October 2020 through March 2021. However, Pacific Northwest snow fans should not lose faith just yet. Climate,13, 793-820. Sometimes we're a little wet in kind of November and December in La Nina conditions, but not always. A dominant northern jet stream and lack of a subtropical jet. But we have chosen factors that in the past as a guide, have proved to have at least some predictive value. Res. MonthlyandDailyvalues for the Arctic Oscillation Index are available from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. An animated illustration that depicts the global scale and eastward propagation of these two phases of the MJO is shown here (Fig. In fact, the winter of 2020-21 ended up being slightly warmer than normal by 1.5F. A pedestrian walks through the rain in November 2019 at Kerry Park in Seattle. As air sinks from high altitudes, it warms and dries, which suppresses rainfall. Baldwin, 2002: Atmospheric Processes Governing the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode/North Atlantic Oscillation. The seasonal drought outlook shows no drought in Western Washington, with conditions improving east of the Cascades. Search Search. 2: Inside baseball: Further details of the ENSO relation. View all 12 months of weather forecasts instantly! That in turn took what could've been a very snowy January into a very rainy January. The record setting winters of 2007-08 and 2008-09, where more than 90 inches of snow fell, were both La Nia winters. La Nia refers to abnormally cold water temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial waters (5N-5S, 120-170W)] of the Pacific Ocean. The MJO becomes organized during late March through May as the green shading covers one half of the planet, and brown shades the other half all along as these areas move west to east with time. We see winter getting off to a fast start and lean toward a colder-than-normal December. Climate averages or normals warmed around 1 to 2 degrees in every winter month between the 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 periods alone. Spells of rain and thunderstorms are expected so keep the rain gear handy. Our chance of measurable snowfall is typically only about 50-50, but we see somewhat higher odds this year. Imagine ENSO as a person riding astationaryexercise bike in the middle of a stage all day long. Measures of these tornado-friendly ingredients can be combined into indexes that are less noisy than actual tornado reports and let us see how the phases of ENSO make the environment more or less favorable for severe weather (footnote 1). Educational Resources River Stages Part I: Month-to-month variability. Seattle's winter weather outlook: Above-average rainfall expected What Is the Debt Limit and What Happens If the US Defaults? Thompson, D.W.J., and J.M. We've dodged a lot of bullets I would say. The retreat of the jet stream results in more blocking high pressure systems that allow colder air to spill into western and central Canada and parts of the northern contiguous U.S. At the same time, storm track activity across the southern tier of the U.S. is diminished under upper-level high pressure, which also favors milder-than-normal temperatures. AccuWeather's 2021-2022 US winter forecast Both phases of the NAO are associated with basin-wide changes in the intensity and location of the North Atlantic jet stream and storm track, and in large-scale modulations of the normal patterns of zonal and meridional heat and moisture transport, which in turn results in changes in temperature and precipitation patterns often extending from eastern North America to western and central Europe.